Climate change and Bangladesh

According to the UN climate talks in Poznan, Bangladesh, North Korea and Nicaragua suffered most from natural disasters in 2007. Also, over a decade, from 1998-2007, the five worst hit countries were Honduras, Bangladesh, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. More importantly, though sudden, destructive weather events are storms, floods and heat waves, etcetera included in the estimation, there are some other events like droughts or sea-level rise, which are longer-term events and far harder to evaluate and are not included in the estimation. Obviously Bangladesh is in more danger than any other countries from climate change. Thus, scientists in the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have warned that climate change this year is likely to make extreme weather events more frequent and possibly more intense too! But in what other ways is Bangladesh likely to or may be suffering because of climate change?

According to a World Bank report, only the recent food price hikes, especially in the last summer, following natural disasters in the Bangladesh and the volatility in international food market might have pushed over four million people into poverty. WB's research report also suggests that the stronger GDP growth between 2005 and 2008 was expected to reduce poverty by around five percentage points. However, the food price shock is projected to have raised poverty rate by around three percentage points from the baseline poverty rate of 2005. Therefore, the net impact on poverty of the combined effects of economic growth and the food price shock is likely to have been a decline of two percentage points - from 40 per cent in 2005 to 38 per cent in 2008. Food crisis took place primarily because of lack of crops produced due to climate change. Hence, if food prices keep rising fuelled by climate change, Bangladesh's dream of achieving Millennium Development Goal (MDG) will be in serious question.

Bangladesh has a history of political turmoil. A World Bank report mentions that Bangladesh is among at least 33 countries with shaky governments and destitute populations. Since its independence from Pakistan in 1971, there have been 22 coup attempts, and some were successful. Condition is still grave for the country, and all are waiting to see if the relatively unstable political regime with a combination of poverty will be brought to a comfortable position by the government which an overwhelming majority support that is not just in terms of mere ballots but runs deep.

However, in terms of climate change as a matter of fact if carbon tax or cap-and-trade system is not implemented equally all over the world, it might create a Swiss cheese. As a result, the US and corporations therein will put extra political and economical pressure on Bangladesh to adopt carbon tax too. If carbon tax takes place all over the world, Bangladesh will suffer enormously, at least in the short-term. Though imposing carbon tax sounds good from economically sound and politically stable Western perspective, it will be a harsh reality for Bangladesh. But the indications are that is hardly likely to transform into reality given US President Obama's commitment to tackle climate change head on - an initiative that is already on.

Three quarters of the global warming mess comes from rich nations. International Energy Agency estimates that China's emissions of CO2 could amount to twice the combined of the world's richest nations, including the United States, Japan and members of the EU. United Nation's IPCC says that it will cost $1.375 trillion dollar every year to beat back climate change and keeps global temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Since Bangladesh is suffering most; it should act by every possible means. Then, what can we do to solve a problem which was not caused by us but we are the ultimate sufferers?

First of all, we cannot wait for actions from others who have hardly suffered from climate change yet. Given the hazardous condition of Hazaribagh and other places, Bangladesh should concentrate at home, and, at the same time, should play a leadership role in the international arena. It should promote public-private collaboration to save the environment. Bangladesh also needs to take advantage from the alliance of LDC countries. In addition, the government will need to spend more in renewable energy sector. Solar panels or wind or other alternative energy still do not contribute a significant portion in the power generation in Bangladesh. It should also focus on any development on environmental legislature in the USA as our export is concentrated in US market. For instance, Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, which contains provisions for retaliatory action to be taken against imports from carbon free-riding nations, might negatively effect our exports in the US.

The extreme population density of Bangladesh, i.e., 2,639 people per square mile, guarantees that any natural disaster in that Green Delta will take a severe human toll. Increasing poverty may be fuelled as a by-product of climate change and, as a consequence, regional security will also be in danger. Food crisis in the last summer gave us a good lesson. But time will say how much did we learn. Obviously, climate change talks in Poznan, Poland did not bring any significant development. So, rather than waiting for other countries, Bangladesh should start to focus at home first, and also should take diplomatic measures to limit its exposure to losses due to climate change.

*This article was published on the daily Independent in Bangladesh on February 13th, 2009. Salahuddin Ahmed from Ashland University, Ohio also contributed in this article.